What Are Each Candidates Chances of Winning the Presidential Election?

A look at polls and the Electoral College vote for the 2020 Presidential Election

The polls and predictions for this election can be pretty confusing. To filter out some of the noise, I decided to take the states where one candidate has a very large lead and add up their electoral college votes — how many does each candidate currently have?

To answer this question, I used information from fivethirtyeight.com — which pulls data from many other polling sources. I decided if Biden’s lead today was more than 8 percentage points, I’d call that state a Biden state. If Trump’s lead was more than 5 percentage points, I’d call that state a Trump state and call the others undecided.

The totals:

  • Biden: 221 Electoral College votes
  • Trump: 158 Electoral College votes
  • Undecided: 159 Electoral College votes

The details are shown in this table below, which also includes the results of the 2016 election.

Electoral College votes based on poll data from FiveThirtyEight.com

Two things are clear

  1. Biden is leading — 221 Electoral Votes to Trump’s 158 Electoral Votes.
  2. Either candidate could win.

A likely path to the 270 electoral college votes needed to win for Biden would include him winning in: Arizona(11 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), North Carolina (15 electoral votes), and Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) — that would give him a total of 273 electoral votes. Biden is currently considered to be leading in these four states, but by a narrow margin.

If Biden doesn’t win those four states, there are other possibilities as Florida (29 electoral votes) and Georgia (16 electoral votes) are also deemed toss-ups at this point.

Watching Results on Tuesday

If you’d like to have the table of electoral college data above, go to its source and you should be able to cut and paste it.

From now until polls closing on Tuesday, encourage others who support your candidate to go and vote. It’s a very close and very important race.

May the best candidate win.


P.S. If you aren’t familiar with the electoral college and how it works, someone else explains it well here.

Programmer by day. Author by night. As I put on running tights, I imagine I’m a superhero. Creator of Unemploymentville.com. More on me: https://bit.ly/3tITsb1

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